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Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa: UFC Fight Analysis & Betting Tips

Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa: UFC Fight Analysis & Betting Tips

Published

Mon Jul 29 2024

Last Updated

Mon Jul 29 2024

Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa: UFC Fight Night Showdown in Abu Dhabi

Ladies and gentlemen, gear up for one of the most electrifying matchups in UFC's welterweight division! The highly anticipated clash between Tony Ferguson and Michael Chiesa is set to ignite the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on August 3, 2024. You don’t want to miss this UFC Fight Night showdown – mark your calendars for 7 PM UTC! Packed with a concoction of raw talent, compelling odds, and intriguing fight histories, this bout promises a night of thrilling action for fans and bettors alike.

Diving into the fighters’ stats, Michael Chiesa, hailing from Aurora, United States, enters the octagon with an impressive record of 18-7-0. Known for his slick wrestling style, Chiesa boasts a win rate of 11 by submission and 5 first-round finishes. With a significant strike accuracy of 41% and a takedown accuracy of 51%, Chiesa looks like a formidable adversary. His recent form has been sterling, with back-to-back wins – notably a commanding submission over Kevin Holland last year. Having been active since his UFC debut in 2012, Chiesa has continually impressed, solidifying his place as a top competitor in the welterweight division.

On the other hand, Tony Ferguson, the ferocious fighter from Oxnard, United States, is a veteran with a stellar record of 26-10-0. Known as “El Cucuy,” Ferguson is no stranger to intense battles, bringing a blend of freestyle fighting to the table. With a remarkable 13 wins by knockout and 8 by submission, he exemplifies versatility in the ring. Ferguson's fighting stats highlight a significant strike accuracy of 46% and a takedown defense rate of 67%. Despite recent hiccups, including losses to formidable opponents like Bobby Green and Nate Diaz, Ferguson's tenacity and resilience are never to be underestimated.

This fight is especially tantalizing for sportsbooks, with Michael Chiesa currently the odds-on favorite across major bookmakers, including DraftKings and BetMGM, varying between -400 to -500. Meanwhile, Tony Ferguson is listed as the underdog, with odds up to +380. This disparity in odds speaks volumes about the bookies' confidence in Chiesa’s current form and Ferguson’s potential for an upset – a factor that could spell lucrative returns for risk-takers.

From a UFC betting perspective, this fight holds notable intrigue. If you're contemplating where to put your money, focusing on each fighter’s technical abilities, fight IQ, and psychological readiness is crucial. Chiesa's grappling prowess and Ferguson's unpredictability create a dynamic contrast, making this bout a must-watch for both combat sports enthusiasts and sports bettors. Whether you are in it for the raw excitement or the tactical analysis, the Ferguson vs Chiesa showdown promises to be an enthralling affair.

Get ready for an epic collision where careers, legacies, and fortunes are on the line. Stay tuned with www.ufcbetcompanion.com for all the latest UFC event predictions, betting tips, and fighter analyses to help you make the most informed bets. This is one UFC event you definitely won't want to miss!

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Sandhagen vs Nurmagomedov can be found on the Sandhagen vs Nurmagomedov event page.

Fighter Profiles: Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa

Tony Ferguson: "El Cucuy"

Age: 39
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Freestyle

Tony Ferguson, affectionately known as "El Cucuy," comes from Oxnard, United States. With a comprehensive freestyle fighting technique, Ferguson is a seasoned veteran in the UFC arena, debuting in June 2011. With a record of 26 wins and 10 losses, he is a powerhouse of experience and versatility. Despite being 39 years old, Ferguson brings relentless energy and unpredictability to every fight.

Recent Form:

  • Win: Ferguson vs Pimblett - Decision (Unanimous) - (Dec 16, 2023)
  • Loss: Ferguson vs Green - Submission - (Jul 29, 2023)
  • Loss: Diaz vs Ferguson - Submission - (Sep 10, 2022)
  • Loss: Chandler vs Ferguson - KO/TKO - (May 7, 2022)
  • Loss: Ferguson vs Dariush - Decision (Unanimous) - (May 15, 2021)

Strengths:

  • Versatility: With 13 wins by knockout and 8 by submission, Ferguson is adept in striking and grappling.
  • Significant Strike Accuracy: At 46%, Ferguson lands nearly half of his significant strike attempts.
  • Experience: His long UFC career gives him a deep fight IQ and the ability to adapt mid-fight.

Weaknesses:

  • Recent Record: With four losses out of his last five fights, Ferguson must overcome a tough recent form.
  • Takedown Accuracy: His 35% takedown accuracy shows vulnerability in successfully executing takedowns.
  • Age: At 39, his endurance and recovery may not be as robust as his younger opponents.

Michael Chiesa: "Maverick"

Age: 36
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Wrestling

Michael "Maverick" Chiesa, from Aurora, United States, is known for his impressive wrestling prowess. Debuting in the UFC in June 2012, Chiesa has carved out a respectable record of 18 wins and 7 losses. At 36, he still maintains sharp physical conditioning and an impressive ground game.

Recent Form:

  • Win: Chiesa vs Holland - Submission - (Jul 29, 2023)
  • Win: Chiesa vs Brady - Decision (Unanimous) - (Nov 20, 2021)
  • Win: Chiesa vs Luque - Submission - (Aug 7, 2021)
  • Win: Chiesa vs Magny - Decision - (Jan 20, 2021)
  • Loss: Dos Anjos vs Chiesa - Decision - (Jan 25, 2020)

Strengths:

  • Submission Game: With 11 submission victories, Chiesa's ground game is his primary weapon.
  • Takedown Accuracy: At 51%, Chiesa is effective in bringing fights to the mat where he can utilize his grappling skills.
  • Grappling Defense: His 61% takedown defense showcases his resilience against opponents attempting to reverse positions.

Weaknesses:

  • Striking: With zero knockout wins, Chiesa’s striking may not be as formidable as his grappling.
  • Significant Strike Accuracy: A 41% significant strike accuracy indicates room for improvement in landing precise hits.
  • Experience in Hi-Octane Matches: While impressive, Chiesa's history lacks the volume of high-stakes challenges that Ferguson has faced.

When Tony Ferguson and Michael Chiesa lock horns on August 3, 2024, UFC fans and sports bettors will witness a clash of styles and experience. Ferguson's versatile combat style contrasts sharply with Chiesa's specialized wrestling approach. As bettors analyze UFC event predictions, Ferguson's striking prowess and Chiesa's ground control will be critical factors in this intriguing matchup. Stay tuned to www.ufcbetcompanion.com for more detailed fighter analyses, UFC betting tips, and predictions leading up to this exciting event!

Betting Odds and History: Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa

As we gear up for the sensational UFC showdown between Tony Ferguson and Michael Chiesa, the betting odds are creating quite the buzz. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or new to the scene, understanding the odds and their history can significantly inform your betting strategy. Let's break down the numbers to see where the best value lies.

Current Betting Odds:

  • Michael Chiesa:

    • Caesars: -480
    • DraftKings: -500
    • FanDuel: -440
    • BetOnline.ag: -500
    • BetMGM: -400
    • BetRivers: -480
    • BetUS: -500
    • LowVig.ag: -500
    • Bovada: -430
  • Tony Ferguson:

    • Caesars: +360
    • DraftKings: +380
    • FanDuel: +310
    • BetOnline.ag: +375
    • BetMGM: +300
    • BetRivers: +350
    • BetUS: +350
    • LowVig.ag: +375
    • Bovada: +320

Odds Breakdown and Best Sportsbook:

Michael Chiesa emerges as the clear favorite with odds consistently around the -400 to -500 mark across various sportsbooks. DraftKings, BetOnline.ag, and BetUS are offering Chiesa at -500, reflecting the bookmakers' strong confidence in his victory. BetMGM offers the highest value for Chiesa at -400, providing a slightly better payout if he wins.

On the flip side, Tony Ferguson is positioned as the underdog, with odds ranging from +300 to +380. DraftKings offers the best odds for Ferguson at +380, making it the most attractive option for those willing to bet on the upset. Betting on the underdog often holds more appeal due to the higher potential returns.

Odds History and Trends:

A keen look at the odds history reveals that DraftKings updates its lines more frequently than others, showcasing notable fluctuations:

  • Michael Chiesa: From -455 (June 8) to -520 (July 28)
  • Tony Ferguson: From +350 (June 8) to +390 (July 28)

Meanwhile, sportsbooks like Bovada showed a broader range of shifts:

  • Michael Chiesa: Started at -180 (May 29) and moved to -430 (July 28)
  • Tony Ferguson: Ranged from +150 (May 29) to +320 (July 28)

This constant update ensures bettors always get the most current odds, ideal for those looking to pounce on favorable lines.

Potential Payouts:

If you're thinking about putting down $1000:

  • Betting $1000 on Michael Chiesa at -400 (BetMGM): Your payout would be $1250, making a profit of $250.
  • Betting $1000 on Tony Ferguson at +380 (DraftKings): Your payout would be $4800, making a whopping profit of $3800.

Implied Probabilities:

Without going into the nitty-gritty of the math, the current odds translate to this: Michael Chiesa is heavily favored, suggesting a high probability of winning. Conversely, Tony Ferguson being the underdog means there's lower confidence in his victory. However, the underdog status always carries the allure of a significant payout for bettors willing to take the risk.

For those looking to make an informed bet, considering these odds and their history gives valuable insight. Whether you lean towards playing it safe with Chiesa or risking a higher reward with Ferguson, it’s all about analyzing the stats and trends.

Stay connected to www.ufcbetcompanion.com for the latest UFC betting tips, updates, and comprehensive fighter analyses leading up to the big event. This UFC Fight Night is shaping up to be a memorable one – place your bets wisely and enjoy the thrills!

Written byJackson 'The Sharp' Martinez