Luana Santos vs Mariya Agapova Fight Analysis: Get Ready for an Electrifying Matchup

Ladies and gents, brace yourselves for an exhilarating showdown as two rising stars of the Women's Flyweight division clash at the upcoming UFC Fight Night on July 13, 2024, at the iconic Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The preliminary card kicks off at 7:00 PM ET, and in a featured matchup, Brazil's own Luana Santos will take on Kazakhstan’s Mariya Agapova. With stakes this high, UFC fans and bettors alike can't afford to miss a moment of this thrilling encounter.

Santos, with an impressive record of 7 wins and 1 loss, is coming off a mixed bag of performances. She recently tasted defeat against Stephanie Egger but displayed her prowess in a stunning victory over Juliana Miller, where she finished the fight with a first-round TKO. Standing 66 inches tall and weighing in at 149 pounds, Santos brings her judo fighting style into the octagon. Known for her impressive submission skills and significant strike accuracy of 56%, she's a force to be reckoned with. Fans and bettors note, her takedown defense is a robust 67%, making it challenging for opponents to dominate on the ground.

On the flip side, Mariya Agapova enters the cage with a record of 10 wins and 4 losses, and she’s hungry to get back into the win column. Also standing at 66 inches tall, Agapova is a dynamic kickboxer with a fierce edge. Her striking accuracy mirrors Santos at 56%, but her takedown accuracy stands out at a remarkable 67%. The Kazakh fighter's ability to finish fights is noteworthy, boasting 6 first-round finishes and a knack for securing submissions—5 of her 10 victories have been by way of submission.

For those placing wagers, understanding the betting landscape is crucial. As of latest updates, Santos is a heavy favorite with odds ranging around -260 to -300 across major sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetOnline. Conversely, Agapova sits as the underdog with odds ranging from +196 to +240 depending on the bookmaker. This dynamic offers tasty UFC betting tips for both seasoned bettors and newcomers looking to capitalize on an upset or a favorite’s performance.

What’s captivating about this matchup is the stylistic contrast: Santos' judo against Agapova’s kickboxing. Will Santos' superior submission game overpower Agapova’s striking flair? Or will Agapova's aggressive kickboxing nullify Santos' grappling edge? The psychological readiness of both fighters also comes into play. Agapova, having suffered some recent setbacks, will be laser-focused on seizing a crucial win. Meanwhile, Santos, despite her strong track record, will be eager to avoid another loss and continue her ascent up the ranks.

With their closely matched physical stats—both 66 inches in height and similar reach—this bout promises to be a technical slugfest, sure to keep fans on the edge of their seats. Whether you’re a die-hard UFC fan or a savvy sports bettor, the Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova fight is set to deliver an unforgettable clash, full of twists and turns that could shake up the Women's Flyweight division. Mark your calendars, study the odds, and get ready for a night of electrifying action!

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Luana Santos vs Mariya Agapova can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Namajunas vs Cortez can be found on the Namajunas vs Cortez event page.

Fighter Profiles: Luana Santos and Mariya Agapova

Luana Santos: The Brazilian Judo Specialist

Country: Brazil
Age: 23
Fighting Style: Judo

Born and raised in Brazil, 23-year-old Luana Santos has rapidly made a name for herself in the Women's Flyweight Division with a record of 7 wins and 1 loss. She carries the pride of Brazilian judo into the octagon, showcasing her grappling skills and tactical prowess. A standout performer since her UFC debut on August 12, 2023, Santos has won fans over with her aggressive fighting style and ability to capitalize on submission opportunities.

Recent Form:

• Loss to Stephanie Egger (Dec. 9, 2023): A unanimous decision loss that exposed some of Santos' gaps in striking defense.

• Win over Juliana Miller (Aug. 12, 2023): An impressive first-round TKO victory, displaying her striking improvement and power.

Strengths:

• Submission Game: With 3 wins via submission, Santos leverages her judo background to outmaneuver and submit her opponents effectively.
• Significant Strike Accuracy: Landing her strikes at a high percentage (56%), Santos is efficient and precise in her stand-up game.
• Takedown Defense: Defending 67% of attempted takedowns, she prevents opponents from controlling her on the ground, allowing her to stay in advantageous positions.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense: Although capable of delivering precise strikes, her striking defense (64%) has occasionally lapsed, leaving her susceptible to counter-attacks.
• Average Fight Time: With an average fight time of 09:21, Santos sometimes lets fights extend longer than necessary, which could expose her to unnecessary risks.

Mariya Agapova: The Kazakhstan Kickboxer

Country: Kazakhstan
Age: 26
Fighting Style: Kickboxer

From Kazakhstan, 26-year-old Mariya Agapova is a dynamic entrant in the Women's Flyweight Division. Standing toe-to-toe with her Brazilian counterpart, Agapova combines a formidable kickboxing arsenal with a ferocious appetite for victory. With a professional record of 10 wins and 4 losses, she has demonstrated her ability to finish fights decisively, whether by knockout or submission.

Recent Form:

• Loss to Gillian Robertson (Sept. 17, 2022): Suffering a second-round submission loss, highlighting some lapses in grappling defense.

• Loss to Maryna Moroz (Mar. 5, 2022): Another submission defeat in the second round, reinforcing the need to shore up her ground game.

• Win over Sabina Mazo (Oct. 9, 2021): A third-round submission victory, showcasing her capability to end fights on the ground.

Strengths:

• First-Round Finishes: Agapova has secured 6 of her 10 wins in the first round, indicating her ability to start strong and catch her opponents off-guard.
• Takedown Accuracy: Boasting a 67% takedown accuracy, she excels in bringing fights to the ground and imposing her will.
• Striking Precision: Matching Santos with a 56% significant strike accuracy, Agapova is equally adept at landing precise and powerful strikes.

Weaknesses:

• Grappling Defense: With only 48% takedown defense, Agapova has struggled to fend off opponents' takedowns, presenting a significant vulnerability against grapplers like Santos.
• Consistency: Recent back-to-back losses expose a need for greater consistency and focus in fight strategy and execution.

Summary

In this compelling UFC face-off, we have Luana Santos, the Brazilian judo aficionado, making her mark with submission skills and defensive tactics. On the other hand, Mariya Agapova, the Kazakh kickboxer, brings an aggressive striking style and fast finishes into the octagon. While Santos boasts strong takedown defense, Agapova’s vulnerability lies in her grappling defense. This clash of styles and strengths, liberally sprinkled with evident statistical advantages and vulnerabilities, sets the stage for an enthralling UFC fight night. Bettors and fight fans around the globe will be keen to see which fighter leverages their strengths most effectively and who addresses their weaknesses most strategically.

Betting Odds & Odds History for Luana Santos vs Mariya Agapova

Current Betting Odds Summary

As we edge closer to the electrifying matchup between Luana Santos and Mariya Agapova on July 13, 2024, everyone’s buzzing about the betting odds. Leveraging key UFC betting tips can unravel some fascinating dimensions to this fight. This bout features Luana Santos as a clear favorite, with her odds hovering between -260 and -300 across major sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetOnline. On the flip side, we have Mariya Agapova positioned as the underdog, with her odds ranging from +196 to +240 at bookmakers such as Bovada, BetMGM, and BetUS.

Best Odds and Sportsbooks

FanDuel and DraftKings are consistent in their updates, but from the data, it’s evident that BetOnline.ag and DraftKings have shown the most dynamic changes in odds, reflecting perhaps the ebb and flow of bettor sentiment and expert analysis. For a high-roller decision, let’s break it down in simpler terms:

• Luana Santos: With the best odds at -260 on FanDuel, a $1000 bet on Santos would yield a return of approximately $1384.62.
• Mariya Agapova: At her best odds of +240 on BetOnline.ag, a $1000 wager would net you a significant $3400 return.

Sportsbook Trends and Updates

Interestingly, the odds history reveals that DraftKings and BetOnline.ag have fluctuated the most, indicating an active response to public betting and potentially new insights on fighter preparations. As we approached fight week, both sportsbooks adjusted their odds multiple times, reflecting updated evaluations or new betting patterns.

For example, DraftKings first listed Agapova at +142, with the odds moving up to +230 by the latest update. For Santos, her odds opened at -170 and climbed to -285. This dramatic shift makes DraftKings an exciting sportsbook to watch for last-minute trends. BetOnline.ag has seen Agapova’s odds fluctuate between +250 and +220, while Santos moved from -300 to -280, providing clear indicators of shifting betting interests.

Betting Insights and Payouts

Given that Santos is the favorite, betting on her would typically be seen as the safer bet, albeit with a lesser payout margin. If we consider the underdog potential of Agapova, betting on her could offer substantial returns due to the higher odds. Here’s a snapshot:

• Santos at -260: Bet $1000 and you could win around $384.62, bringing your total payout to $1384.62.
• Agapova at +240: Bet $1000 and if she pulls off an upset, you walk away with $3400.

Probability Insights

The implied probability based on these odds provides a deeper understanding of each fighter’s perceived chances. Santos, with her shorter odds, carries a higher implied winning probability—around 72% at -260. Conversely, Agapova’s +240 odds suggest a lower probability, hovering around 29%. However, such percentages always come with the unpredictability inherent in MMA, where one punch or submission can turn the tide.

Betting on this fight depends on your analytic instincts and risk appetite. Santos appears to be the safer bet given her track record and current form, but Agapova offers the potential for a lucrative return as the underdog. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just getting your feet wet, it’s important to weigh these odds and history before placing your bet.

So, keep an eye on the sportsbooks, particularly DraftKings and BetOnline.ag, for real-time updates and shifting dynamics as fight night approaches. Happy betting, and may the odds be ever in your favor!