O'Malley vs Dvalishvili > Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko > Fight Analysis

Grasso vs Shevchenko Fight Analysis and Betting Predictions

Grasso vs Shevchenko Fight Analysis and Betting Predictions

Published

Mon Aug 26 2024

Last Updated

Mon Aug 26 2024

Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko: Fight Night Preview

Ladies and gentlemen, fight fans, and sports bettors, get ready for an exhilarating showdown as Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko prepare to clash in the octagon once again. Mark your calendars for September 15, 2024, because this thrilling rematch is set to headline the Riyadh Season Noche UFC event, taking place in the iconic Sphere located in the fight capital of the world, Las Vegas, Nevada.

A Fight for the Ages

In an electrifying reprise of their previous battles, reigning champ Alexa Grasso will defend her Women’s Flyweight title against the formidable challenger, Valentina Shevchenko. This fight isn't just a title bout; it's a culmination of technique, skill, and sheer determination. The stakes couldn’t be higher, making it a must-watch. Betting enthusiasts and UFC aficionados alike will want to stay tuned for every moment of this high-voltage encounter.

Why This Fight Stands Out

Grinding Rivalry: The history between Grasso and Shevchenko adds an extra layer of intrigue to this matchup. Alexa Grasso, hailing from Guadalajara, Mexico, triumphed the last time these two shared the octagon, winning by a split decision. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan’s own Valentina Shevchenko, with her Muay Thai prowess and a record of 23 wins, 4 losses, and 1 draw, is hell-bent on reclaiming her spot at the top.

Tantalizing Odds: For those seeking UFC betting tips, the odds surrounding this fight are as tight as it can get. As of now, Grasso is chalked at -118 across various bookmakers like FanDuel and Caesars, reflecting a slight edge. Meanwhile, Shevchenko is priced at -108, making her a near-even bet at platforms such as DraftKings and Bovada. This could indicate a very competitive bout.

Fighter Stats: Let’s talk numbers. Alexa Grasso boasts an impressive fight record of 16 wins, 3 losses, and 1 draw. She has shown versatility in her victories, winning 4 by knockout and 2 by submission. Her robust striking defense stands at 59%, coupled with a 45% take-down accuracy. On the other side of the ring, Shevchenko’s stats are a testament to her dominance: with a 64% take-down accuracy and a significant striking defense at 63%.

What to Expect

Expect fireworks from the opening bell. Will Grasso leverage her diverse skill set and precise striking to retain her title? Or will Shevchenko utilize her experience and unparalleled Muay Thai background to turn the tables? Both fighters come in with exceptional preparation, promising a contest built on strategy, skill, and raw power. This isn't just a fight -- it’s a battle for legacy, and only one will emerge victorious.

So whether you’re here for the thrills of UFC event predictions, seeking insightful fighter analysis, or hunting for the best trends to place your bets, the Grasso vs Shevchenko rematch is the highlight to look out for this UFC season.

Stay tuned, place your bets, and prepare for an epic clash that will have fans and bettors alike on the edge of their seats!

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for O'Malley vs Dvalishvili can be found on the O'Malley vs Dvalishvili event page.

Fighter Profiles: Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko

Alexa Grasso: Champion on the Rise

Background:
Alexa Grasso, at the age of 30, is one of Mexico’s brightest MMA stars. Born in Guadalajara, she carries the fighting spirit of her homeland into the UFC octagon. With a fighting style rooted in Mixed Martial Arts (MMA), Grasso has showcased a versatile skill set, adept both on her feet and on the ground.

Recent Form:
Grasso’s last few fights have been nothing short of impressive:

  1. win against Viviane Araujo by unanimous decision on October 15, 2022.
  2. win against Joanne Wood by submission on March 26, 2022.
  3. win against Maycee Barber by unanimous decision on February 13, 2021.
  4. loss to Valentina Shevchenko by split decision on September 16, 2023.

This streak of victories, punctuated by a loss to Shevchenko in their tight split decision bout, underlines her resilience and ability to perform under pressure.

Strengths and Weaknesses:
Grasso boasts a commendable record of 16 wins, 3 losses, and 1 draw. Here are some of her key strengths and weaknesses:

  • Strengths: Grasso's striking accuracy at 43% and her ability to defend against significant strikes (59% defense rate) highlight her stand-up game. Her 45% takedown accuracy makes her a dual threat, capable of mixing up her offense to keep opponents guessing. Her fighting IQ and ability to adapt mid-fight have been crucial in her recent performances.

  • Weaknesses: Despite her strengths, Grasso’s takedown defense could use improvement, standing at 59%. This could be a vulnerability against a fighter like Shevchenko, who excels in takedowns.

Valentina Shevchenko: The Bullet Returns

Background:
Valentina Shevchenko, known as “The Bullet,” is a combat sports legend from Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. At 36 years old, Shevchenko combines years of experience with a devastating Muay Thai fighting style, making her a formidable opponent for any fighter in the division.

Recent Form:
Shevchenko’s recent fights demonstrate her tenacity and excellence:

  1. loss to Alexa Grasso by split decision on September 16, 2023.
  2. loss to Alexa Grasso on March 4, 2023.
  3. win against Taila Santos by split decision on June 11, 2022.
  4. win against Lauren Murphy by KO/TKO on September 25, 2021.
  5. win against Jessica Andrade by KO/TKO on April 24, 2021.

Despite two recent losses to Grasso, Shevchenko’s victories over top-tier opponents like Taila Santos and Jessica Andrade showcase her enduring capability and skill.

Strengths and Weaknesses:
Valentina boasts an extensive record of 23 wins, 4 losses, and 1 draw. Let's dive into her strengths and weaknesses:

  • Strengths: Shevchenko’s significant strike accuracy is an impressive 53%, paired with a 63% defense rate against significant strikes. Her ground game is just as lethal, with a 64% takedown accuracy and a 71% takedown defense rate. Her experience and ability to maintain control and dictate the pace of a fight are key advantages.

  • Weaknesses: Despite her strengths, age might be a factor, as she’s now 36. Additionally, her losses to Grasso show that adaptable fighters can exploit her in areas where she may overcommit or become predictable.

Tale of the Tape

This bout between Grasso and Shevchenko is layered with context and stakes, both fighters bringing unique strengths into the octagon. While Grasso has youth and a broad fighting style on her side, Shevchenko’s experience and technical prowess make her a dangerous challenger. It's a classic matchup of versatility versus veteran precision, making for an edge-of-the-seat bout that’s bound to captivate fans and bettors alike.

Betting Odds and History: Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko

Current Betting Odds

When it comes to putting your money where your mouth is, understanding the odds and their movements is crucial for making informed decisions. For the highly anticipated fight between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko, the betting lines are tantalizingly close. Let's delve into the current odds and what they mean for bettors.

Alexa Grasso:

  • FanDuel: -118
  • Caesars: -115
  • DraftKings: -112
  • BetOnline.ag: -115
  • BetRivers: -112
  • Bovada: -112
  • LowVig.ag: -115

Valentina Shevchenko:

  • FanDuel: -108
  • DraftKings: -108
  • Caesars: -105
  • BetOnline.ag: -105
  • LowVig.ag: -105
  • Bovada: -108
  • BetRivers: -112

Odds Analysis and Underdog Insights

Alexa Grasso, despite being the current champion, is surprisingly listed as the slight favorite across multiple sportsbooks. Her odds range from -112 to -118, implying that you'd need to wager $118 to win $100 if you're betting on FanDuel.

Valentina Shevchenko, the challenger with an established championship pedigree, finds herself as the slight underdog. Her odds range from -105 to -112. If you believe in Shevchenko's ability to reclaim her title, sportsbooks like Caesars and BetOnline.ag offer her at -105. Betting $100 on Shevchenko here would offer a return of about $95.24 in profit.

Sportsbook Insights

When scrutinizing which sportsbook updates the most, DraftKings and FanDuel seem to be the leaders in real-time odds adjustments. This is based on the frequent updates in odds history:

  • FanDuel: -108 (Aug 25), -106 (Aug 06), -115 (Aug 19)
  • DraftKings: -108 (Aug 25), -115 (Aug 06), -105 (Aug 24), -108 (Aug 25)

In contrast, Bovada has witnessed more significant movements, with odds for Shevchenko ranging from -120 to -108 over a short period. These shifts can be attributed to expert analyses and public betting patterns, making Bovada an exciting platform but also volatile if you're hunting the best numbers.

Bet $1000: Potential Payouts

Let's say you're willing to place a hefty bet of $1000:

  • Alexa Grasso: If you place this bet at -112 (DraftKings), you'll receive approximately $892.86 in profit.
  • Valentina Shevchenko: Betting $1000 at -108 (FanDuel) would yield a profit of around $925.93.

Probabilities

In the world of UFC betting tips and analysis, grasping the implied probabilities can frame your understanding:

  • Alexa Grasso’s odds (-112) imply a probability of about 52.83%.
  • Valentina Shevchenko’s odds (-108) translate to a marginally lower probability of 52.02%.

These close probabilities underscore the competitiveness of this matchup. Bettor interest will likely focus on Shevchenko’s slight underdog status, given her historical prowess and recent form against Grasso.

Summarizing the Best Bets

If you're looking for the most favorable terms to place your bets:

  • Bet on Alexa Grasso: DraftKings at -112
  • Bet on Valentina Shevchenko: Caesars at -105

Both options offer near-even returns, heightening the excitement of this clash. This is not just a fight between two top-tier athletes but also an opportunity for bettors to engage in what could be a lucrative venture if predictions hold true.

In a nutshell, whether you're seeking to bolster your UFC event predictions or simply indulging in the thrill of placing a well-researched wager, the Grasso vs. Shevchenko bout brings a plethora of betting opportunities. Study the odds, make your picks, and get ready for an action-packed night.

Written byJackson 'The Sharp' Martinez