Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas - AI generated fight pick

Mackenzie Dern comes into this fight with a record of 14-5-0 and is ranked #6 in the Women's Strawweight Division, indicating that she is a higher-ranked fighter compared to Amanda Ribas, who holds the #8 spot with a record of 12-5-0. Dern's Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu base is a significant strength, with 7 of her victories coming by submission, indicating her proficiency in grappling exchanges.

When analyzing the striking aspect, both fighters have an identical significant strike accuracy of 40%, but Dern has a lower significant strike defense at 51% compared to Ribas' 61%. This gap suggests Ribas is better at avoiding strikes, but Dern's fights often play out on the ground rather than striking exchanges, which minimizes her exposure to striking exchanges where she could be outperformed.

Furthermore, Ribas exhibits a stronger takedown accuracy at 51% versus Dern's meager 17%. However, Dern's primary method of victory is not dependent on scoring takedowns but on her ability to work off her back or transition opportunities in grappling exchanges.

Looking at their recent bout history, Ribas has had mixed outcomes with a notable win through KO/TKO against Luana Pinheiro but recent losses against higher-tier opponents like Rose Namajunas. In contrast, Dern’s focus remains on neutralizing opponents on the ground, where she can capitalize on her submission skills. This is further underscored by her ability to secure first-round finishes, evidenced by 6 such outcomes in her career.

Overall, although Ribas has a well-rounded game with abilities in striking and judo for defensive grappling, the stylistic matchup favors Dern’s grappling prowess, where she is likely to find and exploit submission opportunities. Her experience and rank suggest she may have the upper hand in dictating the fight’s pacing and domain, leading to a predicted victory.